đ The CFTC Is Finally Setting Rules for Prediction Markets
The CFTC is finally moving to write real rules for prediction markets. A trader somehow turned $50 million into $36,000 on Aave. And is Steve Aoki about to top the global Pokemon market?
GM!
Todayâs top news:
Crypto majors are green and outperforming other markets; BTC 3% at $72,300
BlackRockâs ETHB staking ETF debuts with $15.5M volume
CFTC moves forward on formal rules for prediction markets
Trader loses $50M in Aave swap gone wrong
Saylorâs STRC sees blowoff Thursday raising capital for 4,100+ BTC (2x prior record)
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đ° Top Stories
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đ CFTC Moves Toward Formal Rules for Prediction Markets
The CFTC made two moves on March 12 that mark a fundamental shift in how the U.S. treats prediction markets.
First, the agencyâs Division of Market Oversight published a non-binding staff advisory to the designated contract markets (DCMs) it regulates - Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, and Crypto.com are all on that list.
Second, and more significantly, the CFTC issued an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) that formally kicks off a binding regulatory process.
The public has 45 days to submit comments.
The ANPRM is a 32-page document that doesnât announce rules, but asks questions instead.
What types of contracts should be prohibited as contrary to public interest?
How should manipulation susceptibility be evaluated?
What are the cost-benefit tradeoffs?
What should count as âreadily susceptible to manipulationâ?
Those answers will inform a formal proposed rule, and then a final rule.
Chairman Selig was blunt on CNBCâs Squawk Box Thursday morning: âFor too long, the CFTC has failed to provide guidance for these markets being used by millions of Americans. This ends today.â
Key Details
The ANPRM opens a 45-day public comment period before a formal proposed rule; full rulemaking will likely take months
Injury contracts, unsportsmanlike conduct markets, and officiating-outcome bets specifically flagged as high-manipulation risk
Advisory also requires DCMs listing sports contracts to engage directly with sports leagues on integrity, settlement, and oversight design
Combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket hit $18.6 billion in February - a sixth consecutive monthly record
đŁ BlackRock Launches a Staked Ethereum Fund
BlackRock launched its iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) on Nasdaq yesterday.
The primary difference between ETHB and their original ETHA ETF is that this one has staking. The fund will pass through 82% of staking rewards to investors via monthly payments.
The product will stake between 70% and 95% of its ETH holdings at any given time, according to BlackRockâs prospectus, with the remaining rewards split among the trust, custodians, and staking providers.
That makes ETHB the third U.S. Ethereum staking product to launch, after Grayscale and REX-Osprey got to market first.
And it launched with a very strong debut, seeing $15.5M in first day volume.
Key Details
⢠ETHB will distribute staking rewards monthly, making the fund look more like a yield product for traditional investors
⢠82% of staking rewards will be passed along to ETHA holders
⢠$15.5M in day 1 volume
âď¸ Ark Says Bitcoinâs Quantum Threat Is Real, But Not Imminent
A new report from Ark Invest and Unchained argues that quantum computing does pose a long-term threat to Bitcoin, but not one that is close to breaking the network today.
Researchers estimate that roughly 35% of Bitcoin supply could be exposed under certain conditions if sufficiently powerful quantum systems emerge before the network upgrades its cryptography.
This risk has been a topic of hot conversation since Christopher Wood of Jefferies removed Bitcoin from their model portfolio precisely because of the looming quantum risk.
The authors of the Ark report stress that current systems are nowhere near capable enough, and that quantum progress is likely to be gradual rather than a sudden âQ-dayâ shock.
Their thesis? The quantum threat is real, but not looming.
Key Details
⢠Ark and Unchained say todayâs quantum computers are still in the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum era and far below what would be needed to crack Bitcoin keys.
⢠The report argues any serious threat would likely develop over 10 to 20 years, giving Bitcoin developers time to adapt with post-quantum cryptography.
⢠The real takeaway is not âpanic now.â It is that Bitcoinâs long-term security model may eventually require a major consensus upgrade.
đĽ A Trader Lost Nearly $50M in a Botched Aave Swap
One of the wildest DeFi trading mistakes of the year just happened.
A trader tried to swap $50M in USDT for AAVE through Aaveâs interface and ended up receiving only 324 AAVE, worth about $36,100 at current prices.
Thatâs a 99.9% loss. Ouch.
Aave engineer Martin Grabina said the issue was not ordinary slippage but a quote that already implied a 99% price impact before fees.
"In this case, the user sent a market order with the suggested 1.21% slippage," Grabina wrote on X. "But the core issue wasn't slippage, it was just the accepted quote with 99% price impactâ
So basically, this was just a terrible trade to make on this protocol in the first place.
And perhaps even stranger, the trader reportedly was operating off mobile.
Managing $50M in crypto from a cell phone is certainly not great risk management, and as for confirming the slippage warning - thatâs just downright crypto malpractice.
A painful mistake and a reminder that permissionless finance can come with consequencesâŚ
Key Details
A trader lost nearly $50M to slippage after trying to swap $50M in USDT for AAVE and received only 324 AAVE ($36,100)
The user executed the swap on a mobile device after checking a warning box indicating potential loss
Aave said it will try to contact the trader and return roughly $600,000 in fees generated by the swap
Learn More
⢠Decrypt on the $50M Aave trade disaster and why the swap imploded.
đ Steve Aoki and Kim K. Go Pokemon Shopping
Kim Kardashian and Steve Aoki were spotted at Aokiâs card shop opening PokĂŠmon packs, and the photo is now making the rounds online as card collectors joke about a possible top signal for the market.
The top signal joke stems from his history with NFT projects, where the top would usually be in within 1-2 weeks whenever Steve Aoki seemingly bought a new NFT collection.
But the reason people are joking about a top is also because the Pokemon market has been so hot.
PokĂŠmon generated ~$2.5B in U.S. sales over the past year, up 87% from 2024, and Logan Paulâs Pikachu Illustrator sold for a record $16.5M last month.
Will Steve mark the top again? Time will tellâŚ
Key Details
⢠PokÊmon was the No. 1 toy property globally last year,
⢠Sales grew 87% year-over-year in the U.S.
⢠Logan Paulâs Pikachu sale set a smashing record at $16.5M
đ Macro Crypto and Markets
Crypto majors are very green and once again outperforming other markets; BTC +3% at $72.4k; ETH +3% at $2,120; SOL +4% at $90
TRUMP (+50%), RIVER (+18%), NIGHT (+16%) and FET (+15%) led top movers
Oil is steady at $93; GOLD -2% at $5,095
Vitalik Buterin described Ethereum's primary role as a public bulletin board for secure technology, changing the narrative to infrastructure for privacy and verifiability rather than a financial network
Ethereum is seeing a rise in address poisoning scams following the Fusaka upgrade, which reduced gas fees enough to make low-cost attack transactions viable at scale
JPMorgan Chase was sued for negligence in an alleged $328M crypto Ponzi scheme
BitMine, Ark Invest, and Kraken backed Eightco in a $125M funding round
The Dubai crypto conference Token2049 was cancelled for 2026
Corporate Treasuries & ETFs
The Bitcoin ETFs saw $54M in net inflows on Thursday, now on a 4-day inflow streak; the ETH ETFs had $72M in inflows
STRC moved another 7.5M shares on Thursday, giving Saylor capital to buy another 4,100 BTC (breaking the old record by 2x)
The new BlackRock ETH staking ETF ETHB saw $15.5M in first day volume
Meme Coin Tracker
Meme majors were very green; DOGE +5%, SHIB +3%, PEPE +7%, TRUMP -2%, PENGU +9%, SPX +9%, FARTCOIN +8%
HeavyPulp (+10,000%), WhiteHouse (+130%) and SOS (+450%) led top movers
President Trump is hosting another exclusive event for TRUMP meme coin holders, a dinner for top holders of the TRUMP token
đ° Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker
Tether invested in Ark Labs $5.2M seed round; Ark aims to boost stablecoin activity on Bitcoin using the Lightning Network and new protocol tooling
Avantis launched a buyback and burn of its AVNT token using 30% of its daily fees
World Liberty Financial teased AI agent integration for its USD1 stablecoin, positioning the project as infrastructure for autonomous AI payments
Cryptio raised $45M in a Series B to expand its crypto accounting and reporting software for institutional clients
MoonPay and Exodus are offering athletes stablecoin signing bonuses for competing in the X Games League
đ What is happening in NFTs?
NFT leaders were mixed; Punks even at 29.4 ETH, Pudgy -1% at 4.28 ETH, BAYC +1% at 5.45 ETH; Hypurrâs +6% at 435 HYPE
Grifter (+15%) led notable movers